Recent findings published in The Lancet highlight a significant drop in fertility rates across Western Europe and other countries, raising concerns over shrinking populations and its implications for global economic growth and workforce sustainability.
A new study published in The Lancet has issued a warning about a “baby bust” in Western countries, pointing to a significant decline in fertility rates that could lead to shrinking populations. The research indicates that by 2100, the average number of children born to women in Western Europe, including the UK, is expected to drop significantly below the level needed to maintain population sizes without relying on immigration.
The study, co-led by Dr. Natalia V Bhattacharjee of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, forecasts a decrease in the UK’s fertility rate from 2.19 in 1950 to 1.30 by the end of the century, well below the 2.1 replacement level. This trend mirrors a global shift, with 198 other countries also anticipated to have fertility rates below the necessary levels to sustain their populations by 2100.
These declining fertility rates present significant challenges for global economic growth, with the potential consequences of diminished workforces and aging populations. The research underscores the importance of social policies to support families, such as enhanced parental leave and free childcare, and the need for open immigration policies to sustain economic growth amid declining populations.
Additionally, the study highlights the critical need to promote women’s rights and support their choices regarding family size and career aspirations, warning against policies that could limit reproductive rights. Emphasizing gender equality, the research suggests, will be beneficial not only for health outcomes but also for economic growth as demographic shifts alter global economic and power dynamics.
The global total fertility rate’s halving over the past 70 years indicates significant demographic changes. By 2050, Niger is expected to have the highest fertility rate, while South Korea is forecasted to have the lowest. This study points to the urgent need for inclusive policies and support for women’s rights to address the challenges posed by declining birth rates and changing demographics.
